CEO of Country Risk Solutions and author discussing China's world impact, cyber terrorism, risk management, and AIRequest fees and availability
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Daniel Wagner is the founder and CEO of Country Risk Solutions and a widely published author on current affairs, risk management, and cutting issues of the day. He began his career at AIG in New York and subsequently spent five years as Guarantee Officer for the Asia Region at the World Bank Group’s Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) in Washington, D.C. During that time he was responsible for underwriting political risk insurance (PRI) for projects in a dozen Asian countries.
After then serving as Regional Manager for Political Risks for Southeast Asia and Greater China for AIG in Singapore, Daniel moved to Manila, where he served in several roles at the Asian Development Bank’s Office of Co-financing Operations, including as senior guarantee officer. Daniel was Senior Vice President of Country Risk at GE Energy Financial Services before founding CRS in 2009. He has published more than 700 articles on risk management and current affairs and is a regular contributor to the South China Morning Post, Sunday Guardian, and The National Interest, among many others.
Daniel is also the author of seven books: The America-China Divide, China Vision, AI Supremacy, Virtual Terror, Global Risk Agility and Decision Making, Managing Country Risk, and Political Risk Insurance Guide. (For a full listing of his publications. He holds master’s degrees in International Relations from the University of Chicago and in International Management from the Thunderbird School of Global Management in Phoenix. He received his bachelor’s degree in Political Science from Richmond College in London.See keynotes with Daniel Wagner
Governments, businesses, and individuals are being forced to make a choice: lean in the direction of the eagle and pursue a free, democratic, and market-oriented economic and political system, or lean in the direction of the panda, toward that of an authoritarian form of government and state-dominated economic system. It is, ultimately, a confrontation that will determine our collective future and the stakes are extremely high.
For some nations, businesses, and consumers, the choice is easy and obvious; for others, it is a real dilemma. Daniel’s book and keynote explores:
Wagner has written an important and fascinating exploration of the divisive landscape that is already in the process of defining the 21st century.
In this keynote, Daniel examines why the Chinese government acts as it does on the international stage and the impacts it has had, and will have, on countries around the world in the future.
This keynote explores:
There is good reason why China is on the precipice of global supremacy-it has used the existing global framework to its own distinct advantage, and yet, it would like to modify that framework to ensure that its comparative advantage continues well into the future.
Understanding the Chinese governments motivations and actions will be more important than ever going forward. Daniel’s book and keynote is broad in scope and includes chapters on the global economy, Asia and the South China Sea, the US, the Middle East, cyber warfare, and AI.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is having a profound impact on individuals, businesses, and governments, but what is required to get ahead and stay ahead of the AI curve is not well understood.
AI Supremacy is a comprehensive guide to AIs impact on a societal and global level, and provides a vision for how AI and machine learning will likely influence the way business is done, societies function, and governments interact in the future.
Daniel has crafted an insightful, entertaining, and unique keynote that:
While few organizations and governments have achieved the right mix to lead in the race for AI supremacy, those that have already possess a substantial lead. Those that have not are simply falling further and further behind.
Can those that are not already in the race, get in the race with any realistic hope of catching up? Can those who are already in the race ever catch up with the leaders? Who will win in the end? Should AI be feared or embraced? These are among the many questions Wagner explores.
Anyone who logs on to the Internet can become a victim of Virtual Terrorism, whether via e- mail, social media, a Google search, or simply by logging on to a computer. Anyone seeking to do harm to others online can be a virtual terrorist, and it is incredibly easy to become one.
Unlike more conventional types of terrorism, in which the perpetrator seeks recognition and reveals his or her identity, with Virtual Terrorism the identity of the person, group or government responsible for acts of terror is deliberately hidden in an anonymous, borderless, and lawless world.
Daniel’s audience takeaway include:
Set against the era of man-made risk, where transnational terrorism, cyber risk, and climate change are making traditional risk models increasingly obsolete, he argues that remaining passively on the side-lines of the global economy is dangerous, and that understanding and actively engaging the world is central to achieving risk agility. Wagners definition of risk agility taps into the survival and risk-taking instincts of the entrepreneur while establishing an organizational imperative focused on collective survival.
Audience takeaways include:
The rise of agile decision makers coincides with greater resilience and responsiveness in the era of man-made risk.
Cyberspace is the ideal platform for terrorists because, unlike conventional warfare, barriers to entry into cyberspace are much lower—the price of entry is an Internet connection. The surreptitious use of the Internet to advance terrorist group objectives has created a new brand of Holy War – “Virtual Jihad” – which gains thousands of new adherents each day. For terrorist organizations, a clear benefit of cyberspace is its ability to readily radicalize individuals from a distance and at any time, utilizing the Internet and superior social media intelligence to gain attention and remain relevant globally.
Cyberspace offers potential jihadists the opportunity to receive instruction and training on topics ranging from data mining to psychological warfare. The use of the Dark Web and encryption programs allow terrorist groups to effectively communicate in secret. Although terrorist organizations have been adept at utilizing the Internet to spread propaganda and provide instructions for attacks, their ability to launch offensive attacks via computer networks had previously been limited. Cyberattacks attributed to terrorists have largely consisted of unsophisticated tactics such as e-mail bombings of ideological foes, DDoS attacks, or defacing of websites. Even when such attacks have been successfully deployed, the damage inflicted has been limited, largely because global intelligence agencies actively monitor their websites, conduct analyses to determine potential terrorist plots, and render some of the domains inaccessible to the public. That has now changed.
A Virtual Caliphate
Long after the current collection of terrorist groups have ceased to be a major threat from a physical perspective, they will remain omnipresent in cyberspace, promoting a virtual caliphate from their safe haven behind computer keyboards around the world. Islamic extremists are natural candidates to transition to the virtual world because it offers them automatic citizenship beyond the nation-state. Decades of violent conflict, border disputes, and shifting refugee populations have left millions of Muslims without a clear national identity – a virtual caliphate offers refuge, free from terrestrial constraints, which can be accessed from anywhere in the world.
Since the Islamic State (IS) was founded, its leaders have deftly and continually rewritten the narrative by which they could claim that the group’s desired caliphate exists, where it is located, and who its adherents are. Unconstrained by the absence of a definitive Quranic guideline for what constitutes a caliphate, the IS created its own self-promoting doctrine. The group expanded its caliphate narrative to include a wide range of options for participation: membership included everyone from the passive observer reading a blog or curiously following a Twitter feed, to the keyboard jihadist editing Rumiyah or hacking a website, to the real-world operators attacking a nightclub or running down holiday celebrants with a delivery truck. The IS has successfully exploited the sociopolitical environment and young adults’ obsession with technology to establish a growing community of devotees in the ungoverned territory of cyberspace, ensuring its ability to continue to coordinate and inspire violence well into the future.
This notion of a virtual caliphate clashes with traditional notions of statehood and governance, but it is not the first attempt that has been made to create a virtual state. In 2014, Estonia took the unprecedented step of offering any person in the world a chance to become an Estonian ‘e-resident’, in an attempt to create a ‘digital nation’ for global citizens by offering to provide government-issued digital identification to anyone in the world, and enable non-Estonians access to Estonian services such as company formation, banking, payment processing, and taxation. Doing so would allow Estonia to continue operating as a state even if its physical territory were ever seized. By harnessing the millions of people who form its social network, the IS expanded its community of e-citizens to promulgate its radical ideology and direct attacks across the globe well before the collapse of its physical caliphate.
The IS has also capitalized on the world’s evolving propensity to integrate online activities with real world activities. Social media has had an incredible multiplying effect on radical messaging, and the IS has had great success publishing online, which has resonated particularly well with disenfranchised Muslims and youths, inspiring some to act on inspiration and guidance received online. The IS has exploited their search for meaningful identity by promising to restore their dignity and might so that they may find personal fulfillment and purpose.
The virtual world is in some ways more compelling than the real world, because storylines can be artfully crafted to be maximally appealing, while omitting anything that may be perceived of as negative. A promise is much easier to make online, as is the vision of fulfilling aspirations. The IS has created virtual messaging that is wildly at odds with the reality of life as an IS fighter on the ground. Cyberspace has enabled the IS to turn tactical defeats on the battlefield into glorious martyrdom operations that highlight the bravery and commitment of its fighters. The loss of territory and the deaths of key leaders have served to feed propaganda efforts that are used to prove the resiliency of the caliphate.
In the face of the force-multiplying impact of the IS’s adaptive narrative, even concerted efforts by Muslim clerics have largely failed to undermine IS’s caliphate narrative. While the vast majority of the world’s estimated 1.6 billion Muslims are not IS supporters (perhaps just a fraction of one percent, although no one can say for certain), the group’s ability to engage virtually with large swaths of this population drives varying degrees of participation in the virtual caliphate, including non-supporters, passive observers, benign fans, “keyboard jihadists”, and real-world actors. This diverse range of participants helps to ensure that the notion of a virtual caliphate will endure long after the current crop of IS leaders are gone. The IS has found its own salvation via the Internet, particularly since it has already passed the peak of its real-world power.
*Daniel Wagner is the founder of Country Risk Solutions, managing director of Risk Cooperative, and author of the new book “Virtual Terror”. Giuseppe Del Vecchio is a research analyst with CRS.
Why is it important for people to better understand the threat that cyber terrorism represents, and why should we be worried about it?
The nature of terrorism has changed. It is not longer simply a group wanting to promote its political objectives and blowing something up. Today, it is about stealing information, interfering in people’s lives, and creating a climate of fear. Terrorism is now also generated online, in a lawless world where there are no boundaries. That is why it is everyone’s problem, and why we should be worried about it.
You’re an expert in achieving global risk agility for businesses, do the same ideas ever apply to risk taking in everyday life?
Risk agility is all about anticipating risks – both seen and unseen – and crafting an approach to addressing risk in a proactive, deliberate, consistent, and sustainable manner. Such an approach translates into our personal lives, especially when you consider that such phenomena as climate change, cyber risk, and terrorism loom in the background and impact all of us, whether we realize it or not.
What is political risk insurance, and how can it make conducting business internationally less risky?
PRI is all about removing non-commercial risk from commercial transactions by transferring such risk to insurers. Examples includes the risks of expropriation, currency convertibility, political violence, and breach of contract. Most businesses do not realize that such insurance is available for trade, investment and lending transactions all over the world. Taking out PRI makes capital acquisition less costly and more readily available, as well as making the risks of doing business globally significantly lower.
What makes your keynote presentations unique?
With three decades of experience in the private and public sectors, I not only have a wealth of experience to share, but a lot of stories to tell. Audiences have told me they particularly enjoy those stories. My presentation style is relaxed and engaging, in no small part due to how interesting the topics I speak about are. Whether it is cyber risk, country risk, or achieving risk agility, I drive home their applicability in today’s world.
Do you have a favorite speaking engagement that stands out from your career?
I have traveled all over the world and made presentations in dozens of countries. The most noteworthy presentations have tended to be in some of the more exotic locations I have visited. Among the most interesting and memorable was when I spoke to a group of tribal chiefs in Papua New Guinea. I have had the great privilege of having met some fascinating people in my career, and I always enjoy presenting to unique groups of people in unusual places.
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