Gerd Leonhard

10 Reasons to be optimistic, 5 Strategies and 3 Actions.

For decades, film and TV studios have flooded the public with visions of dystopian futures – no wonder that many people fear AI and robots. Add the streaming platforms, social media, pandemics, (re)globalisation, automation and geopolitical upheaval to the mix, and the result is a widespread belief that the future is mostly bleak (read more about that here).

Yet the fact is that our world is not irrevocably destined to become a dehumanized hellscape ruled by AI, or some other Black-Mirror-like nightmare, and our future certainly isn’t fixed – we create it with our (in)actions, every day. And if you look at the correct data, you’ll find things often are actually better than ever before.

The world is, in fact, improving at a rapid rate. Sure, the world’s progress in the past 30 years is not all just peachy and amazing – especially when seeing it in context with the current corona crisis. Yet we are well on the way of reducing extreme poverty and hunger, and chiselling away at many of the other woes that have plagued humanity since the dawn of time, including diseases, crime and war. Indeed, we have a lot of reasons to be optimistic about our progress. In the next decade, Gerd thinks we will have most of the tools
(i.e. science and technology) we need – so now we must acquire the telos (will, purpose and wisdom).

So what can you do, as an individual, an enterprise or an organisation, to make sure your future will indeed be bright? How will you turn these challenges/opportunities into positive action? If we are (or become) what we believe we can be, how do we change our beliefs and mindsets?

THINK LARGER. IMAGINE. PREPARE.

AI is now a general purpose technology, and the platform ‘for everything' – yet AI is clearly not the panacea or the magic wand many entrepreneurs, tech-moguls and Silicon Valley investors have envisioned. It's time to look beyond AI. While we certainly need to get ready for the 5 hyper-exponential technological game-changers (quantum computing, nuclear fusion, synthetic biology & nano-technology, genome editing and geo-engineering) we also need to ask this crucial question: What kind of future do we want? In this talk, I outline what to expect by 2030, while correlating the technological breakthroughs with wider societal developments such as the rapidly accelerating climate emergency, technology regulation, global governance and global consciousness, the rise of GenY & Z, global demographics and various important geopolitical mega-trends.

AI is now a general-purpose-technology like fire or the printing press, and it’s the new technology platform, as well. It could be heaven or it could be hell, depending on whether the tools will end up dominating us, or whether human telos (the purpose) will prevail. The more power we have, the more wisdom we’ll need!

Science fiction is increasingly becoming science fact as smart machines – both physical as well as virtual – take on more and more tasks once thought impossible for a digital entity to accomplish. As a result, knowledge work is transforming at a rapid pace, forcing us to reconsider what it means to ‘be human‘ – in our daily life, in our professions and in our organisations.

We must embrace these new possibilities while also preserving and protecting our humanity, and we must define new values and goals that transcend increased efficiency or the resulting financial gains. It will clearly be our androrithms, our uniquely human skills and traits that will make us invaluable in this coming age of AI, not just our ability to command technology or to become faster by using it.

In this talk, Gerd guides your audience through what is important (and real) versus what is false (or indeed, dangerous) when it comes to AI. He delineates how we can harness the power of AI to further human (and planetary) flourishing, our happiness, our success and our well-being. Gerd sets forth why he believes the future holds great promise if we play our cards right and pursue People, Planet, Purpose and Prosperity.

The most important future foresights, delivered straight-up yet with optimism and inspiration.

In these confusing times, where AI-infused media is increasingly spreading disinformation and fabricating fake realities, it is essential to learn how to see through the hype and unmask false promises. In this talk, Gerd shares his constantly updated list of ‘facts & truths’ about the future, such as:

• Science and technology alone will not save us – we need the tools AND we need the telos!
• Understanding the future is both an art and a science, imagination & intuition beats knowledge.
• AI tools are fundamentally labour-replacing, and we must prepare accordingly.
• Transcending our human limitations by technological means will not makes us fundamentally happier (transhumanism is a dead end).
• Until we change our reasons (the purpose), we won’t really change our actions (and the resulting problems): We need to rethink our economic logic.
• A technology-centric, reductionist approach of dealing with human realities will inevitably fail.
• When it’s about ‘intelligent digital entities’, we should focus on competence (IA) not on consciousness (AGI).

Why and how the decarbonisation of our economies is the biggest opportunity in this coming decade.

‘Digital transformation’ is just business-as usual-by now. The next really big topic is Big Green – the Decarbonisation of our economies and the ‘gradually, then suddenly‘ departure from the fossil-fuel era – and 2024 is when the gloves are coming off.

Get ready: wide-ranging new carbon taxes are inevitable (airlines, meat, personal carbon budgets etc) and fossil fuel subsidies will be turned into ‘nature positive’ investments. During the pandemic we learned that being prepared for emergencies is totally essential – and that yes we can indeed compromise and collaborate (if we have to:)

Gerd sets forth that the circular economy is the only economy we’ll have by 2030, and that ‘sustainable’ is becoming the new ‘profitable’ in the next 5 years (have a look at the stakeholder economy debates).

Any company that does not understand how this global move towards rapid decarbonisation will impact every segment of their business – from R&D to supply-chain, to production to distribution to marketing to branding – will wither and shrink or just fade away, and every individual that does not understand what it means as far as knowledge, skills and mindset is concerned, will quickly become dispensable.

In this talk, Gerd explains why this tectonic shift is happening now, what it really means, and how to get behind it and prosper in this fork-in-the-road decade that’s coming up. 

The next 10 years will bring more change than the previous 100 years.

We are going warp-drive into a future characterised by these 3 Revolutions: The Digital Revolution (including AI), the Green Revolution (Sustainability & Decarbonisation), and the Purpose Revolution (a new economic logic ‘beyond GDP’, based on what I call People Planet Purpose and Prosperity, the 4Ps). Big Blue, Big Green, Big Purple (video)!

If indeed “the future belongs to those that can hear it coming” we would do well to develop a ‘future mindset‘, question our assumptions about what’s possible, and boost our ability to better respond to the framework changes (not just to the individual pictures).

The future is no longer about ‘tomorrow‘ – the future is already here; we are just not paying enough attention yet! By 2030, we will have approx. 9 Billion people connected at high speeds and very low cost, and virtual/augmented reality will be as normal as WhatsApp.

Conversational AI and natural interfaces will be how we interact with computers, and the rapid convergence of online | virtual and real-life | physical worlds will upend how we do everything, from working to traveling to shopping to healthcare to banking.

The power of exponential, general-purpose technologies such as AI and VR will become almost limitless – which is why we must now start to focus a lot more on remaining human, and on ethics and values – in a way, purpose itself will become the new product (reminder: green is already the new digital!).

How Organizations Can Define and Create Their Preferred Future.

While a rising tide lifts all boats, one-sided or blind disruption can capsize any organization. To create enduring, dynamic organizations built to last in today’s era of accelerating exponential technology, the most important thing is foresight and preparedness.

Now, companies and organizations – and their people – find themselves increasingly forced to pivot and reinvent themselves, or face sudden disintermediation and irrelevance. From music to the automotive industry, from big oil to big box retail and everything in between, the pace of change is increasing and only poised to accelerate further as the 3 Revolutions, the 10 Game-Changers and other Megashifts sweep across the industry and society, altering every aspect of daily life. 

While organizations unprepared for the waves of change to come will not survive, those that ready themselves can take advantage of the enormous opportunities created amidst the chaos, from IoT and artificial intelligence to robotics and new human-machine interfaces (such as voice-control and intelligent bots).

Awesome humans on-top of amazing technology.

All too often, scientific breakthroughs, industry hype cycles, the latest technological achievements or economic growth targets dominate discussions about our future. Yet as the world is rapidly going digital and becoming increasingly virtual, Gerd believes it actually is our humanity that needs the most attention, and that it will be our humanness which will make all the difference. The now- thoroughly-deflated hype about the Metaverse makes for a good example: sometimes technology promises to give us everything we’ve ever dreamed of, but ends up giving us little of we really need?

Computers will inevitably outpace humans in mere processing power, logic and efficiency, and the resulting ‘End of Routine’ is a certainty. Thus, the ticket to our future is to become more human, not less, not to compete with the machines but to use their increased competence to handle those tedious commodity tasks better and faster. Gerd thinks machines, computers and algorithms should have competence not consciousness.

What will happen to humans when machines become truly ‘intelligent’? What about privacy, mystery or serendipity? And what of emotions, intuition, imagination, consciousness (what he calls, in his last book, the androrithms)? In this talk, Gerd outlines the challenge as well as some possible solutions.

Reminder: The biggest danger today is not that machines will eliminate us, but that we may become too much like them.

Character Traits, Personality, Skills and Attitudes: Your Mindset contains your Future!

While there is no such thing as “knowing the future,” nothing is more important to your future success than your mindset, your intuition, your imagination and your overall future-readiness. Looking at the Future is not about prediction – it’s about being better prepared – and it is something we can learn and practice.

In this popular talk, Gerd explains and shows how to develop your future mindset, how organisations can dramatically increase their future-readiness The next 10 years will bring more change than the previous 100 years, driving by the 3 revolutions (digital, sustainable, purpose) as well as by simultaneous technological leaps in sectors such as AI, Quantum Computing, Synthetic Biology, Nanotech and Genetic Engineering and others.

Our future could be hell or it could be heaven – it’s our choice!

Science fiction is increasingly becoming science fact. Consider the dramatic technological advances in robotics, artificial intelligence, human genome manipulation, autonomous vehicles, and quantum computing. By 2030, the power of exponential technologies will become almost limitless!

The ethical and humane use of technology can no longer be an afterthought, but is instead an existential challenge. If we define ethics as “knowing the difference between having the power to do something, and doing the right thing”, who do we want making these critical decisions? Should it be for algorithms and profit incentives alone to determine our fate? Who will be “mission control for humanity”?

To paraphrase Apple’s CEO Tim Cook “Technology can do great things, but it does not want to do great things...it doesn’t want anything” .

In a world where technology will increasingly define every aspect of life, who do we want at the helm? If we define ethics as “knowing the difference between having the right or the power to do something, and doing the right thing”, who, then will decide what is right, and who will be “mission control for humanity”?