Saul Eslake

Maynard Keynes – arguably the greatest economist of the 20th century – once wrote that “the civilizing arts … in fact use up an infinitesimal quantity of materials in relation to their importance in the national life and the comfort they can give to the individual spirit”.

Saul Eslake was fortunate to serve as Chair of the Tasmanian Arts Advisory Board from 2006 until 2011, and also briefly on the Australian Business Arts Foundation Board.

He is currently the Chair of Ten Days on the Island, Tasmania’s bi-ennial statewide multi-arts festival.

Asia accounts for 52% of the world’s population and (as of 2013) 34% of the world’s GDP. By the end of the decade Asia will account for 39% of the world’s GDP. Asia already takes more than 75% of Australia’s merchandise exports.

Saul Eslake believes it is impossible to understand Australia’s long-term economic prospects without a good understanding of what’s happening in the major Asian economies.

Monitoring, analysing and trying to predict trends in the Australian economy has been a major element of Saul Eslake’s work as an economist since leaving university in 1979.

Saul Eslake believes it is impossible to think, write or speak about an economy without understanding the broader social and economic framework in which it operates.

While he works hard to avoid partisan political commentary, he does at times write and speak about significant social and political developments.

Commodities – agricultural products, minerals, metals and energy – are far more important to Australia than they are to most other advanced economies.

The direction of commodity prices is a key influence on the Australian economy and, usually, on the Australian dollar.

The Nobel Prize-winning economist James Tobin once said that the study of economics “offered the hope, as it still does, that improved understanding could better the lot of mankind”.

Saul Eslake explores how economic policy can help moderate boom-and-bust cycles, reduce unemployment, contain inflation and improve living standards in sustainable ways.

The American actor Will Rogers once said (in 1932) that “an economist’s guess is liable to be as good as anybody else’s”.

More seriously, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman wrote that economists “do have a method – a systematic way of thinking about the world that is more true than not, that gives them genuine if imperfect expertise.”

Here, Saul Eslake shares his own thoughts on the economics profession and its practitioners.

Saul Eslake has a strong belief in education as an enabler of improved individual, community and national living standards.

He also sees it as essential for developing informed and engaged citizens, while promoting peace and understanding between people of different nations.

Saul Eslake often compares the global financial system to a country’s electricity grid.

Most people rarely notice it unless it stops working – as the global financial system very nearly did in late 2008.

Globalization – the increasing integration of countries through the movement of goods, services, capital and people – can be a powerful force for improving living standards and expanding opportunities.

It can also be disruptive, and many people oppose it for ideological reasons.

Saul Eslake presented a series of talks on this topic in the early 2000s, which are reproduced here.

Housing is one of the most important aspects of people’s lives, whether they own their home, rent it or invest in property.

As demonstrated during the lead-up to and throughout the global financial crisis, housing markets play a vital role in the stability of the financial system and the overall health of the economy.

The labour market is arguably the most important market in any economy.

It is where people find jobs, businesses find workers and most pre-tax incomes are determined. 

It is also a primary focus of economic policy and represents far more than simply a market.

As Paul Krugman famously said, “Productivity isn’t everything, but in the long run, it’s nearly everything.”

Saul Eslake spent much of the period between leaving ANZ in 2009 and joining Bank of America Merrill Lynch researching and writing about productivity growth for the Grattan Institute.

Saul Eslake has long been concerned about many of the actions governments have taken since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001.

In his view, many have eroded civil liberties that previous generations fought hard to secure, while others have consumed significant time and resources with limited improvements in public safety and instead contributed to a climate of fear.

These views are reflected in a number of his articles.

Although not born in Tasmania, Saul Eslake grew up there and retains a strong sense of belonging to the state.

He believes Tasmania has faced long-term economic challenges, and the articles featured here reflect his advocacy for policies that would strengthen the Tasmanian economy and improve living standards.

Taxation is an important part of economic policy, raising revenue for governments while influencing private saving, investment and spending decisions, as well as the distribution of income and wealth.

Decisions about what is taxed, and at what rate, are always controversial and can sometimes have unintended consequences.